[-moe-]

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What do you guys think, does this sound like a decent idea?

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That sounds far too complicated and tedious.

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Yes, but -- that's for me, not for them. They just get a HH snipped off before the river, and will guess what the river is. We'll just repeat it as long as they wish.

That's all, basically. Then I would have to do the work of a) providing hand histories, and b) figuring out the result after they are done guessing at as many hands as they like.

The main reason I want to do it like this, is that it tests exactly what they say they can do, so there can be no good excuses if (when) they lose the bet.

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Why not just ask how often they think flushes hit on the river when all of the money goes in on the flop, and play a few cheap tournaments in front of them?

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I like the idea of betting on a per-hand basis. That would be quick and painless for me aswell. Thanks for the idea.

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You can also let them try to guess the river card, paying something between the fair amount and the frequency they say they can predict the river, say paying 40:1 if they think they can guess the river card 1 time in 30.

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I like this one better than fixed at eg a rivered flush, since this would provide the possibility of a bet for a lot more hands. No need to ask them how often they expect to hit, though -- I can just calculate the actual odds in each case, which is dead simple and very quick. ("The river will be a 5 or a club!" "Ok, let's see, that's 11 cards, and there are now 44 unknown cards, that could come from the deck. I give you 3:1." :-))

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The down side is that you won't be a lock to win. However, you'll get more action, and it will be more fun.

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Yep, thanks for your input.