Re: Standard deviation for SNG\'s and sample size for CASH games
Let me add more to this discussion .
Let x be the number of hands needed to be within 1ptbb/100 of your hypothetical win rate . So if we believe that we win 10bb/100 hands and our standard deviation is 110bb/100 hands , then the number of hands needed at 2 standard deviations is :
10+-2*(110/sqrt(x/100))
So we want 2*(110/sqrt(x/100)) =1
sqrt(x/100)=+-2*110
sqrtx=+-2*110*10
x=4 840 000
This means that even after 4 840 000 hands , you are 95% confident that you're within 1 bb/100 of your true win rate . This is one of the reasons why nobody really knows their true win rate because they usually change limits before they can draw any conclusions from it .
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