[pzhon]

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"Results don't lie in the long run"


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Nothing says you have to play enough to hit the long run.

If you play Russian roulette, you won't hit the long run. You can still talk about getting lucky, or that someone else was unlucky. A casual player who usually plays for small stakes but who takes a shot at the WSOP main event is probably not going to hit the long run in MTTs in their lifetime.

By the way, it seems to be a common misconception that there is some magic threshold below which results are meaningless, and above which results are meaningful. In fact, as you accumulate data from repeated experiments, your results gradually become more accurate reflections of your expected value, and they do not ever become perfect.

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We can only calculate our EV by documenting results over a statistically significant sample.

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Wrong. We can estimate EV by creating applicable mathematical models and analyzing them. These models do not have to be perfect to give much better information than the results alone.