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Old 09-27-2007, 05:22 AM
7_toolz 7_toolz is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: toronto
Posts: 45
Default Odd happenings at FULL TILT...what are the chances????

Hi guys,

Note: This is not a post about how online poker is rigged. I am winner at the tables, so I am not some newb who claims online poker is rigged after a few losing session.

I have been playing online for 2+ years now and I DO NOT believe it's rigged. Yes, I get sucked out like crazy at times and yes it does suck a whole lot, but I understand that over a large sample of hands you will see your fair share of bad beats and dish out your fair share as well.

Okay, now getting back to "odd" thing. The time frame setting is between the night of Sept.25th and the early mornings of Sept.26th. I was running 11+1 Sng's and a few hrs of 6max 2/4 Limit during that time frame.

Now, combined with the limit cash and Sng's, i was dealt pocket 22 roughly 8 times (too lazy to go dig up the exact numbers right now) but the main point is, I hit a set with 22's 6 times out the 7 or 8 times I was dealt it.

With the times when I see my 22's to the river I have hit a set. The other 1 or 2 times, I either folded preflop or didn't go to the river.

Now, isn't the chances of hitting a set like very very low? Like under 10%? What are chances someone hits a set 6 out 7/8 within a roughly 12 hour time period??????

Okay, so after that day I was talking to some buddies and did some thinking. Basically we just attribute this to the fact that when you play alot of hands of poker, you will see stuff like this. Alright, so cool, lets move on.

NOW, when I was playing in a limit tourney tonight (Sept.26th to Sept.27th) on FTP (24+2 Limit MTT.) I hit board trips (dealt KJ -> JJx flop) or a set with JJ every time!

I noticed this trend as I was playing. Near the late stages of the tourney, I raised UTG with JJ, we cap on the flop with me all-in on the 3rd or 4th bet. Opponent shows AA. So obviously I am screaming at my laptop, Jack, Jack, JACK!!!

And guess what? A Jack came on the river....

Now I am guessing some of you flamers are gonna probably make fun of me and tell me I am BS'ing.

Everything I've wrote is 100% true and of course I have all the Hand History in PokerOffice and in my FT folder.

If you guys don't believe me, I will show you the evidence.

BUT, thats not the important thing...to all the mathematically smart people in the forums, what are the chances of stuff like this happening????

In conclusion though, I still don't think online poker is rigged in anyway. My explanation for this is "[censored] happens". There lottery winners every year and winning the lottery is like 0.000232349823% chance. So if you look at the overall scheme of things, I guess its not THAT odd. But what I do find odd is the fact that i hit a set with those hands in SUCH A SHORT PERIOD of time.

I am playing tomorrow as well, and I update you guys if I am hitting crazy sets again. Oh and this "odd" thing is pretty cool for my bankroll too, so I aint complaining lol.
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