[pete fabrizio]

I think your criticism of Kelly Criteria/conventional bankroll analysis overstates the case. I generally agree with you that there are a lot of spots that are massive outliers -- e.g. tilt, opponents on tilt, game with big fish, etc -- and that these events are more determinative of the extent of a players "long term" winnings than most people think. However, these are all still evaluable in terms of expected value and expected variance. Risk of ruin/kelly criteria calculations are just the tools we use to make the correct bankroll-maximizing decisions based on those expectations.