09-26-2007, 08:23 PM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Hi. My name is Rosa Kato <3
Posts: 19,541
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Re: Big bluff on river (profitable??)
captain zeebo theorem:
http://captzeebo.supok.net/2006-02-12.html
Theorem 1: The Full House Theorem
Nobody is capable of folding a full house on any street for any sized bet, ever. Don't fool yourself into thinking they can. I'm not even referring to NUT full houses (eg. board reads 29522, if your opponent has the loan 5, they will almost always call allin; if they folded, it was likely do to timing out or a misclick). Remember: full houses aren't too common, and after all, you might be bluffing!
Ways to exploit:
If you expect someone has a full house, and you can't beat a full house never ever bluff. If you expect someone has a full house and you can beat their likely full house, go allin. Let's say the board is 29522, and you have TT or better, go allin no matter what the size of the pot is, b/c they can't fold.
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