View Single Post
  #5  
Old 09-26-2007, 06:27 PM
ProfessorBen ProfessorBen is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Proud to list Stanford in Loc
Posts: 1,619
Default Re: Play a hand against me and maximize your value

[ QUOTE ]
Raising the turn is by far the worse option because a card might hit that kills our action and confronting him with 2 bets to showdown via an AMBUSH line might motivate him to make a good laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain's range should squarely be QQ+/KQs/AQ/AKhh and QJs(discounted) when he 3bets. There are no scarecards on the turn that will prevent him from slowing down or paying off once we get to the turn. If he's folding any of that range on the turn, he's not calling down enough and we have lots of profitable semi-bluffs against him later.

It's somewhat close, but we can decide to pop the turn because:
1. We have position so villain will bet 95% of his turns.(He may chicken out on some 8s, though most 2p2ers wouldn't.)
2. Villain should pay off a large majority of the time. The only turns he shouldn't payoff are the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] when he has KQs/QJs and non-[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8s some of the time(though 8s should look like a scare card as well). In raising the flop, it is unlikely that we have a flush draw, so villain would be hard pressed to not pay us off in a large pot(11BBs by the time we pop the turn).
3. Capping the flop significantly decreases our chances to raise the turn. Villain is likely calling down AA/KK/AQ/KQ UI at that point.
4. There are no scare cards for us; we should be raising all heart turns because even if villain has AKhh, it makes up a small percentage of his range that we still need to raise for value. We also have a large number of outs against his range.
5. Raising the turn helps compliment your turn-semibluffs in a shania-esque fashion and provides other meta-game benefits including the point that villain will be more likely to not play back at you lightly.

Following the creed of always fastplaying your monsters is not a bad rule of thumb to follow, but you are missing value if you don't recognize which spots you can afford to pop turns with.
Reply With Quote