Re: variance in $x/$y PLO vs. $2.5x/$2.5y CAP PLO
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you think wr will be lower in the smaller non-cap game?
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i'm saying that relative to the blinds, both your winrate and variance will be lower. so your wr at 10-20 might be like 8bb/100 with a sd of 80bb/100, while at 25-50 cap i would guess it would be more like 4bb/100 with a sd of 60bb/100. so the bankroll "requirements" of the smaller game would be $96,000, and for the bigger game would be $270,000. The Kelly criteria cutoff point would be around $161,000. however, if your winrate in the bigger uncapped game was also 8bb/100 with an 80bb/100 standard deviation, the bankroll "requirement" would be around $260,000, but the Kelly criteria number drops all the way down to $56,000. the moral of the story is that wr/sd is much more important when you're considering moving up and taking shots than sd alone.
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