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Old 09-26-2007, 01:38 PM
LA_Price LA_Price is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: MN
Posts: 712
Default Re: variance in $x/$y PLO vs. $2.5x/$2.5y CAP PLO

The problem is that poker results are path dependent. Let me explain. Standard deviation does not differentiate between a series of small changes or a single very large change. Pete isn't quite understanding the question, and the underlying assumtion of standard deviation. It could be he is right that the swings in the 25/50 cap game could be bigger, but for the wrong reasons.

The limiting amount for the 25/50 40BB cap game and the 10/20 100BB+ game, the monetary amount $2000, could be viewed differently by the player in each game. The 25/50 players may think "hey, I only lost 40BB", while the 10/20 could think "damn, I just lost 100+BB" even though they are betting the same amount. There is an undefinable element to the 10/20 game that isn't contained in the cap game. Losses are not capped, which can benefit players who tilt alot less. Other players tilt is a very big part of any PLO players winnings.

The larger relative swings(in BB) per hand of the 10/20 game could induce people to play worse, or perhaps the more frequent(and possibly lower expecation per all-in) swings of the 25/50 game will induce people to play worse. It could also be neutral, I don't know. If I was cmyr I would think about the mistakes that players can make in each game, and play whichever game the weakest relative players were in.
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