[Aaron W.]

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Daniel,

I think you should show us the math on whether or not calling the turn is correct.

Buzz

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"It's better to remain silent, and be thought a fool - than to open your mouth and remove all doubt"

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It's too late for that since you've already opened your mouth. So the question is not whether you will be thought a fool, but whether you will choose to remain one.

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Yes, I use that quote, and then speak anyway. Silly me. Was my response that foolish? I pretty much just admitted that the math was beyond me. And if I am a fool, then doesn't the fact that I am thinking about hands and posting for advice, already show that I am trying to not remain one?

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I am not going to attempt to figure out the exact math here. I will get it wrong.

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Here you are remaining a fool. "I won't try because I'll get it wrong."

There is much to gain from struggling with the math, even if you're not mathematically inclined (just ask any of the posters who Wookie has challenged to work out the math).