[iggymcfly]

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So Cal is not the favorite on a neutral field against Oregon? Bizarre.

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I'll admit that I don't really get the line. I'm higher on Oregon than anyone, (have them as #5 in the country), think they're definitely better than Cal on a neutral field in a power rating sense, but with the matchups, I'd still have to lean Cal.

Both Oregon and Cal are running teams as Oregon ranks 4th in rushing and 50th in passing while Cal ranks 23rd in rushing and 69th in passing. However, while rush defense is a relative strength for Cal (#30 vs. #59 in pass efficency D), it's a definite weakness for Oregon (#77 vs. #34).

They gave up 315 yards on the ground to Houston and 140+ to both Michigan and Stanford. I just don't see how they stop Justin Forsett. If I had to pick a winner, I'd still probably pick Oregon something like 47-44 in 3OT due to home advantage, but even thinking Oregon's 3-4 points more talented than Cal, I wouldn't put this line above 3.