[im a model]

i spend a lot of time in sports books (i dont bet, i just watch games and get free drink tickets--im an ideal client) and i hear a lot of really dumb stuff...

"whats that dallas +140 houston -160 mean?"
"uhhhhh... thats if you want to just bet it straight up and the book doesnt take any juice, so you could bet 160 on houston and win 140 or bet 140 on dallas and win 160, but i like betting spreads."
"oh, ok. i got it."

...i could go on. its about as bad at the poker table, and i often hear people talking about sportsbetting (usually what random game or total is a lock and/or how great they are at handicapping) and when someone challenges them and says it isnt beatable, if the "handicapper" is not completely retarded they say how the sportsbook just puts out a line to split public action so they are guaranteed a profit, and a smart bettor can beat that line.

my question is why doesnt the book just put out the fair line? that way they wouldnt have to deal with line moves, which cost them money by leaving them exposed to middles anyway. also, they wouldnt be losing money to sharps who know the fair line and to people who are scalping. are the books really in such a financial situation that they are afraid of losing a few games, so they feel they have to balance the action and cost themselves EV?

take a roulette analogy: if there isnt an equal amount bet on red and black on each spin, the casino doesnt care. they know they are going to smash anyone in the long run with their %4.5 edge or whatever it is. they dont try to balance the action by giving red better odds so that they can be guarenteed a %2 edge instead of being exposed for some money if red comes up. so why do they do it in sports? it makes some sense for a start-up book that cant afford any real exposure, but for books like pinny, the mirage, caesars, etc. that have no risk of going broke, why not just set a fair line and not let unbalanced action sway it either way?


and for a somewhat related question: is there a database of the final numbers of public money bet on each side for past games? like how covers has the past several years with the spread and total of the games, is there anywhere that has these numbers with the accompanying money on each side? not that i think a strategy as simplistic as "fade the public over %70" or something would work, or everyone would be doing it, but i think it would be interesting to look at.


and on an editorial note: i hope you appreciated how all three of my locks lost in a landslide. it couldnt have been more perfect. i mean... this [censored] is rigged.