Re: Winning in Tough Hold \'em Games Study Group - Day One
Another example - let's say we're 3 seats off the button and spew monkey is in the BB again. Would we rather play JQ os or 55 or does this not matter? Stox, according to his guidelines suggests that 55 goes in for a raise, while JQ os goes in the muck. Is this true in the situation we're in? BB is a spew monkey and will likely c/r a flop just because he feels like it (or so it seems). Do we really want to hold 55 in this situation? I would think most of the value lost for JQ comes in the times we are 3 bet by one of the TAG's to our left when they hold AJs or say AQ. But if we're not getting 3 bet frequently from MP, would we rather hold JQ vs. spew monkey? I'm not really sure and probably really close again, but I'm just working through ideas.
Stox states that in a loose game holding “a pair of sevens . . . in very loose games . . . so the decreased likelihood of stealing the blinds is balanced by post-flop expectation.” However, the situation above is not a very loose game and a situation in which BB will likely defend and c/r.
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