Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
2 reasons I bet SDSU +15 vs. Cincy:
1. Cincy is overrated. This is mainly because of the Oregon State game and their +15 in turnover margin (1st in the country.) They are a good team who has caught a lot of breaks. Everything has gone their way this year. I distinctly remember the Oregon St. game where one fluke after another gave Cincy good results (Oregon St. had 80 more total yards and lost by 31.) Yes they are a good team and yes good teams make their own luck...but not to the tune of +4 turnovers a game.
2. Difference in motivation. For SDSU, this is probably their best chance to beat a ranked team and get on Sportscenter, maybe ever. For Cincy, this is a no-name opponent in a crappy stadium the week before the biggest game maybe in their program's history. Cincy is surely to be overconfident. When things go your way every game, you forget about adversity. It's human nature.
I don't expect an upset, but 15 points is a lot to give a team that isn't used to avoiding trap games the week before their undefeated clash against Rutgers. Plus, road favorites are sketchy to begin with.
How about a middle?
Cincy 31
SDSU 17
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