[knappis]

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yeah. it pains me to see that this thread is only about math now. and to me as a mathnoob some of the assumptions used for modelling the case seem strange/incorrect. but as most posters here i don't have a f'ing clue about statistics.

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Well, I think it is about time we discuss math since it is the basis of the whole cheat theory in the first place. I can understand that everybody is so sure there was cheating going on if the odds for these things to happen by chance was in the 1:billion range. But closer examination of the evidence suggests some of the most compelling evidence of a cheat is much much more likely to be due to variance than has been suggested before.

I have skimmed through the threads to find solid evidence for some of the more popular claims made about odds. And I think I found the source of the 10^20:1 estimate:

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I have a masters in statistics and an off the cuff estimate I would give would be something like 10^20:1

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That evidence is pretty thin with my standards.