advice pls
A buddy of mine and I each pick 5 games per week. We can pretty much make any bet that can be made with a sportsbook (parlays, over\unders, spreads, teasers, moneylines, props, etc…)
I am terrible at picking games and I usually end up picking with my favorite teams or teams I “feel” should cover. I use almost zero trend history or in depth analysis (nor am I looking to) other than tid bits I pick up on sports talk radio or ESPN.
For example, I am thinking about these picks this week and my "analysis" of why I am considering them
VA Tech -17 vs UNC
UNC is just plain awful
Bama +2 vs FSU
Bama lost a nailbiter this week and should come back strong.
Louisville -8 vs. NCSU
NCSU is awful.
tOSU -22 vs Minn
Not sure why, but I think they cover.
Houston Texans -3 vs Atlanta Falcons
Houston is strong to very strong and ATL lost to a bad Carolina team yesterday.
Chi Bears -3 vs Det Lions
Again, not sure why but I think Chi wins this easily.
NY Jets -2 vs Buf Bills
Jets are average to below average, but the Bills are awful.
Indy Colts -9.5 vs Den Broncos
Denver won the first two games with last second FGs and got smoked by a bad Jax team who got run over by Tenn two weeks ago.
I rarely will parlay any games and usually end up taking favorites and giving the points. He will parlay his football picks nearly 100% of the time and usually makes 3 2 team parlays (which pays 2.6:1) and 2 3 team parlays (which pays 6:1). Sometimes using the same games on different parlays.
I am 77-104-4 (-23.91 units) and he is 81-97-7 (-11.35 units). I lost most of mine during MLB picking over\unders and money lines (thanks Braves).
I’m not looking for input on the games I listed above (although it’s okay). I’m more looking for everyone’s input on my optimal strategy going forward with making exactly 5 picks per week.
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