[Pokey]

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Why the hell do you call the turn?

PUSH, SHOVE, WHATEVER, BUT GET IT IN THERE!!! ZOMG!

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Villain seems to be fairly tight and aggressive. Think of a TAG's range at this point in the hand, considering the play thus far. Now, within that range, answer these two questions:

1. What calls a pot-sized raise on the turn that we've got good equity against?

I cannot imagine a naked Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] calling this bet, paying the pot with nothing but a second-nut DRAW. AK will usually fold here because it doesn't have a flush or a flush draw (you've got A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). Anything weaker than that is running for the hills when you make a pot-sized raise when the third flush card hits the board. If he's semi-bluffing, he's not typically going to pay off a pot-sized raise all-in, and if he's value-betting with something beaten by AA, it's going to be extremely frightened by your push. Odds are, hands we beat will fold to this bet, and that's a bad thing.

2. What folds a pot-sized raise on the turn that we don't have beaten soundly?

Is he really dumping a flush or a set at this point? Maybe he'd release two pair, but based on the play in the hand so far it's extremely difficult to think of a two-pair hand that made it past the preflop action. Sets are correctly calling on pot odds, and flushes are correctly calling because they are committed. Pretty much every hand that has us beaten is calling this push, and that's a bad thing.

Pushing the turn seems -EV to me; we've got the implied odds to chase our flush if we need it and we've got a strong enough hand to warrant calling down in a blind vs. blind situation.