[Pokey]

How sad is it that I got the math wrong?

Set combinations are three each, not six. (Divide by two, stupid!) That means nine possible sets, reducing his likely holdings to about 15. If you increase the odds that he's got a medium pair, this can go back up, but even without it we're getting 15-to-7 and we're a favorite against his likely range. Even against his maximum theoretical range we're about neutral on EV, and I just don't see him calling the preflop reraise with 93s. And EVEN if he did, then we have to throw in the missed straight draws as possibilities, semi-bluffing the flop and turn and bluffing the river.

I stand by my suggestion that we call this river bet, but I repudiate my bad math. Sorry!