Re: NL50 - overplaying my JJ?
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I think I play this the same given reads/stats.
Not that big a sample, but VPIP/PFR are much more reliable over this sample size than AF. So I place more weight on this and the previous history OP mentioned of 3b/aggroness and come to the conclusion this villain is going too hard with a ranges (preflop/flop ranges) worse than JJ.
Villain leads here with most hands he has 3b pre. So I think we need to raise flop for value and protection against 6-9 outers.
Once we do this, we are committed, which I think is ok - QQ+ seems pretty unlikely...55-TT is very possible and we beat half those...throw in XsXs, 8X, A7, the odd SC's (45 etc.) and the odd total trash hand and I think we are good to felt here (esp. considering dead money of course).
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i'm not sure I would include SCs in his 3betting range based on just 2 hands, I think after the action on the flop an overpair is most likely, maybe 99+??? But I can not rule out a set, FD with AK,AQ or a straightdraw althoug they are all less likely. The thing is there's probably more hands that beat me then those that I beat so my question is if it's not better to just fold to his cbet - I am not very good at playing in 3bet pots but most of the time at NL50 these are QQ+
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