Re: WCOOP HORSE
Based on the 3rd Street Action I would put your villains on the following ranges:
Mausilein (6- 6- 5)
roo_400 (7- 7- 2)
I'm not too sure how reasonable these ranges are as I didn't spend much time observing the villains while watching you, but the worse these ranges get the better you are off. Given these ranges you have about 14.7% equity or just under 1:6 odds of Winning. The pot is laying you just over 1:6 pot odds if you get both players in. Should roo_400 fold you are getting worse potodds of 1:5.5 but your equity actually increases to about 28%, which would be an even more favorable outcome. In any case, putting the money in is +cEV
More importantly however, there is no reasonable way you could fold and go back to a stack of less than 2 BigBets, being forced to move in again very very soon when you have the chance of winning a very playable 20k+ stack.
I wonder if anybody agrees with the ranges I put the villains on. I think the one for Mausilein is a tad too strict as he (she?) is very short as well and can't fold that hand at any point, either.
|