View Single Post
  #13  
Old 09-23-2007, 09:52 AM
Lostit Lostit is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: i ain\'t got my taco
Posts: 177
Default Re: River my Flush and madness breaks out

The one thing, that I think is being omitted from this discussion is the fact that this hand is basically big stack poker.

I agree that the proper turn in retrospect was to push the turn, knowing what I know now, but look back at the situation. I think its actually a toss up between push/check behind

Pot = $90
Button has $11 left
SB has $66 left.

SB Checks, I push for $66.

What have you got?

1.) Pot would equal $156.
2.) Button would be getting approx 15-1 on his money for a call, so he's in. Pot is now $167
3.) Back to SB with $66 behind. He's getting approx 2.5 - 1 to call there. With all the draws on that board, plus the fact that it is NL50 and people do play sets & 2pair disgustingly, chances are good that I'm going to showdown with at BEST a 30% chance, but more likely some outs are discounted and probably only a 25% chance of actually winning the hand. Throw in the fold equity there and it probably even between the two possibilities. In reality I only had 6 outs, or a 12% chance.

I think its close either way when looking at the odds that were available to calculate at the time of the decision.
Reply With Quote