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he's not folding an overpair if thats what you put him on. I don't think this is +EV.

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Why wouldn't he, 4 card straight is there, flush is there, 7 is there, boat is there. If he calls with an overpair then I think its reasonable to mark him free money..

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what makes you think he didn't hit the board in some significant way?

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The way he bet, timing on his bets and call.