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Old 09-22-2007, 10:10 AM
ILOVEPOKER929 ILOVEPOKER929 is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Omaha Fish
Posts: 5,114
Default Re: Weird river raise. No what

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Also I dont like this flop call. IMO, on this specific board I think check/raising will be better than calling.

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I have been thinking about that.

I have to admit I am not really sure.

Against this player who will give a free card with Ax and Kx but prolly not fold them to aggression I think c/c has merit as you get a cheap shot at winning the the pot by improving compared to the more expensive c/r - bet semibluff

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You could be right. I am not positive that C/R is better than C/C but I think we find the answer to this one since all we have to do is make a few assumptions.

1) Put him on a range
2) Assume he never folds Ace high
3) Assume he will fold no pair no draw King high or worse on the turn
4) If he calls the turn we should check/fold the river IMO, cuz if someone takes this kind of pressure on the flop+turn on this specific board, they will not fold the river often enough to make a bluff profitable IMO. This means that we are investing 2BB's to make this play.

5) Also, assume that he never folds two undercards on the flop like JT. So we have to invest 2BB's here.

So now we just need to find all the hands he'll fold on the turn and see if this percentage is high enough to make C/R worth it given these pot odds. One thing I ignored that is important is those times we hit a 9/8 on the river and outdraw Ax and when a decent pot that way.
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