Re: Hole in one odds from Yahoo news story
Here's another possibility. They have a distribution for golfers' ace abilities. For example, take 4 golfers, A-D. For simplicity, assume that they golf in the order A, B, C, D. Take A's ace probability to be 1/2249.73, B's to be 1/11189.7, C's to be 1/15148.5, D's to be 1/5001.
Then (1/2249.73 + 1/11189.7 + 1/15148.5 + 1/5001) / 4 = 0.00019996 = 1/5001. So their average ace getting ability is 1/5001.
The odds of back to back aces (AB ace, BC ace, CD ace) are =
1/2249.73*1/11189.7 + 1/11189.7*1/15148.5 + 1/15148.5*1/5001
= 5.882327667117519*10^-8 = 1/17000001
This is just one of an infinite number of solutions. I highly doubt the writers of the Yahoo story were able to find a distribution of golfers' ace abilities and figure out the odds in the article.
|