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Old 09-21-2007, 01:23 PM
Daniel Magix Daniel Magix is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
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Default Re: AQos flops boat - lone villian leads out

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So in my initial response I said it really doesn't matter... I said this because hands like these are so rare, it is not going to affect your winrate at all basically, unless you fold.

Let's look at the possibilities of what he has...

1. Air - he is trying to bluff a super scary board it you have any PP up until JJ as well as KK. If we raise now, he will most likely fold. If we call, he will c/f the turn quite a bit and always fold to a turn raise if he does bluff again. So many times you are not getting any more money out of him irrespective to the line you take.
2. He has an ace. Most players have no concept of wa/wb and love to donk flops like this with an ace. Some are so predictable, it actually saves you bets in the long haul. So if he has an Ace and we raise, he will almost never fold to a raise and will actually call you down WAY too often. If we call and raise the turn, he actually may catch on that he is beat because that line is SUPER strong and you are only doing it w/ a Q or AA typically.
3. He actually has a Q and is playing it fast (hey, it happens). This is our best case scenario. If we raise, he will likely 3bet and then we can wait till the turn to pop him again. There is absolutely no way he folds a Q here ever, even if turn is another Ace as people just do not fold full houses (zeebo 101). In this case it would be awesome if the turn was like a 9-J as this really falls into his Qx defending range I would guess.

So after all that... now what. Raising here and fast playing is your best bet and is actually the least transparent that you have a monster.

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Thorough post, thanks for the thoughts.
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