[Post-Oak]

OK, we'll see who's the liar. Maybe you can explain how you get nickel lines, and even money lines on bets that you place a full week before the game? (summary provided)

Let's look at Week 2 first. He lists his record as 8-3 +4.85 units at the start of that week (after the Thurs night game). His 3 losses to date were all counted as being on a nickel line (-105), even though that was never stated anywhere.

Here are all of his picks:

Temple -2.5 1.1u to win 1 unit. loss
BG +17, 1u winner
Okla -10, winner
PSU -14, 1u winner
Oregon +7, 1u, another unit at 8.5 winner x2
Rutgers -13, 1u. winner
BYU +7.5, 1u. Loss
Miami u43.5, 1 unit. LOSS
UNC +6, 1 u winner

total donk parlay (his words)
0.1u to win 1.26u
NW -10
BG +18
Vandy +3.5
Hawaii -27.5

He expunges the parlay from his record, becuase it was just a "donk" play. Of course, "degen play on Rutgers u50.5" or "fun sized bet on AF", without even listing units, count as 2 wins in his YTD record (one for a full unit win).

His W/L record he updates as 15-6. You can see he went 6-3. Where does the extra win come from? Well, because he had Oregon at +7 AND +8.5. That's two wins, right? Right??? What a clown.


Let's look at how he tracks units won and lost.

His first update (ignore the OregSt loss because that was on Thursday, and that is counted in his 8-3 record):

Temple -2.5 1.1u to win 1 unit.
BG +17, 1u
Okla -10,
OregSt -3, LOSS
PSU -14, 1u
Oregon +7, 1u, another unit at 8.5
Rutgers -13, 1u. winner
BYU +7.5, 1u.
Miami u43.5, 1 unit. I hope this goes up so I can load up on it. Only fear is Freeman is so bad even a top 10 Miami D can't keep it close.

9-3 ytd, +5.85u.

OK, he booked a win on Rutgers, and he added one unit won. So now we are sure that his bets are to win one unit, and not one unit risked.


Next update:

Temple -2.5 1.1u to win 1 unit. loss, gg Owls
BG +17, 1u winner
Okla -10, winner
OregSt -3, LOSS
PSU -14, 1u
Oregon +7, 1u, another unit at 8.5
Rutgers -13, 1u. winner
BYU +7.5, 1u.
Miami u43.5, 1 unit. I hope this goes up so I can load up on it. Only fear is Freeman is so bad even a top 10 Miami D can't keep it close. LOSS - Freeman is horrendous. Wright better get healthy.
UNC +6, 1 u

11-5 ytd, +5.75u.


Se he added 2 winners, for +2 units. He had 2 losses, but only subtracts 2.1 units, even though he had 1.1 to win 1 on Temple. So that means that he got the Miami under at even money, even though he never mentioned this fact (translation: [censored]). His 3 previous losses were all booked as being on a nickel line (-105).


His last update:

PSU -14, 1u winner
Oregon +7, 1u, another unit at 8.5 winner x2
BYU +7.5, 1u. last minute Loss
UNC +6, 1 u winner


15-6 ytd, +8.7u.

Again, it should be 14-6, in case that is confusing you. He wins 4 units on his 3 winners, bringing him to +9.75. So we can see that his BYU loss was once again on a nickel line. This guy bets the opening line. He bets Thursday games. He bets early, he bets late, but he always get a nickel line, or even money.


Week 3

He makes this offhand comment:

Okay, you got me, I'll put a funsized bet on AF and the points.

And then chalks it up as a win:

Thanks for the guaranteed winnah! 1-0 Week 3,
16-6 YTD picks

Of course, his "degen play on Rutgers u50.5" was also booked as a win (for a full unit). But his donk parlay, to win 1.26 units, was expunged. You can bet your bottom dollar that it would have counted if he had won it.

His next update:

BYU -6 for 1 unit
Huskies +4 for 1 unit
GT -6.5
Troy +11
USC -8.5
Miami -32.5 all 1 unit.
ND +8, 1u
ArizSt -27.5, 1u. Dennis Erickson still likes to put a ton of points on the board, can't see them falling behind 14-0 [and they still covered] again.
Undid the Utah by taking UCLA -14 at matchbook/-114, redoing Utah +15.5/-105 for 1 unit.

Ridin' Troy a winnah, glove compartment, gotta get my cash. Knew that spread shoulda opened +6.5, not +11. Double-digits was crazy like Krayzie Bone. Got warrants in every city except Houston, but I still ain't losin':

17-6 YTD cfb
+9.95u.

He came into the week 15-6, +8.7 (actually 14-6, but you know what I mean). So now we know that his "fun sized bet" was supposedly to win 0.25 units.

Next update:
BYU -6 for 1 unit
Huskies +4 for 1 unit Loss
GT -6.5
USC -8.5
Miami -32.5 all 1 unit. Loss
ND +8, 1u Loss
ArizSt -27.5, 1u. Adding at -28 1u.
Undid the Utah by taking UCLA -14 at matchbook/-114, redoing Utah +15.5/-105 for 1 unit. WIN

18-9 YTD cfb
+7.85u.

His one unit win would bring him up to 10.95. Looking at his YTD, his 3 losses brought him back down to 7.85, meaning he lost 3.1 units on those 3 losers. How is this possible? I guess two of the games were on a nickel line (-105), and one was an even money bet! This guy really knows how to line shop! These bets were placed on September 9th, a full week before the games! Where can I find these even money lines on Sunday night???
Also, maybe I am not understanding what he meant, but shouldn't he have booked a small unit loss when he undid his original Utah wager? Or did he find UCLA -14 +105 (we assume he got a nickel line of course), in order to perfectly balance his original bet?

His last update:
BYU -6 for 1 unit loss
GT -6.5 loss
USC -8.5 Win
ArizSt -27.5, 1u. Adding at -28 1u. loss
Ark ml Loss (added: 0.5u +150 Arkansas)

19-12 YTD cfb ATS 0-1 ML
+4.20u.

His win brings his YTD units up to 8.85, and his 0.5 unit ML loss brings us to 8.35. So once again we are faced with a problem... how can you bet 3 games to win 4 units and only lose 4.15 units? Hmmm, it must be 2 nickel lines, and another even money bet!
Also, using his lame-brained accounting system, he booked two wins on one game because he bet it twice. Well it seems he only booked one loss when the same thing happened here with Az State.

So his record should be 18-12, 0-2 ML. I am not gonna take the time to figure out what his units should be at when we assume a dimeline ( a quick estimate is +3.4). Also, two of his wins were a "degen play" and a "fun sized bet" which were listed without units. When they both won, they got included in the record (one for a whole unit). I can't verify his 8-3 Week 1 record because his picks were in more than one thread, and I don't want to track them down.

Summary:
All of his losses are counted being on a nickel line (-105) or at even money, even though he bets most games on Sunday night (when the line opens).
He counted a win twice, because he bet the same game twice (with different lines), but did not count a loss twice when he lost a game he bet twice.
He expunged a ML parlay which was to win 1.26 units, even though he inlcludes "winners" where he made offhand remarks like "placed a fun sized bet" and "degen play" without even bothering to list the units (or put them in his list of plays, which he does for all normal picks as soon as he adds them) .
He's off to a nice start, but is still fudging his W/L record and units won.