[bravos1]

OK... several problems with this post..
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Flop can still be justified with a call, to see what brings on on the turn.

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yeah..I'd say getting 10.5:1 here more than justifies a call.
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However on the turn, let's say you have a OESD. But you are on the lower end and with only one of your pocket cards to complete the straight.

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While yes, only one of our cards completes the straight, most straights on this board will need a 3 and we have 2 of them reducing the chances that it comes in and we chop.
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Although a full OESD would give you 8 outs, I would discount it to only 4.5 outs, given someone could be calling with 78, or a diamond could have completed a flush for someone.

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Discounting them that much because someone "could" have 78 is just ridiculous. Someone "could" also have 55/54/52 and we are drawing dead. We shouldn't discount because of 78, but we probably should discount our diamond outs, so I'd give ~7 outs for the OESD.
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you have 2 more outs for a set of treys, but that could have completed someone's straight too. This I would discount to .5 out.

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Umm why would you discount here at all? if we catch a 3, we don't have a set of trey!!! We have a boat of trey over 5s. So 2 more full outs.

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So total 5 outs -> you would need a pot size of 8.20. You had such pot odds to call on the turn, but it's really peeling thing. This is compounded by the fact that with 3 other players calling, their collective outs are doing no good to you. Should have folded on the turn.



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Folding the turn is bad as you counted hero's outs poorly. On avg., I'd say we have 8-9 outs here.

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However I ran the simulation on stove for the turn situation, and got these figures:

HERO w 33 32%
Villian w random 22%
Villian w random 23%
Villian w random 23%

To the veterans out there, since HERO is facing a pot odds of 9.25 on the turn to call, and he has a pot equity of 32%, does it mean it's ok to call? Since he 'owns' a big part of the pot compared to the amt he need to contribute.

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This stove is bad also because you put in random hands for the villians. You can be assured that by now they do not have random hands. Let's just give them each a hand that makes sense and see where we stand. BTW, finding a hand for button is tough because I'm trying to figure a hand where he raises PF, yet only calls the flop, and then leads the turn. But let's look at one scenario.. I can change it and make the numbers better or worse, but whatever. I usualy give ranges here, but went specific holdings as just a what-if.

Board: 4s 5d 2d 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 17.494% 17.49% 00.00% 6019818 0.00 { 3d3s }
Hand 1: 17.495% 17.49% 00.00% 6020295 0.00 { QdTd }
Hand 2: 07.500% 07.50% 00.00% 2580796 0.00 { 7h6h }
Hand 3: 57.512% 57.51% 00.00% 19790788 0.00 { KcKs }

IMO we have enough to peel the turn. The best card for us is a 3 (which you discounted the most) as it completes tons of straights, but boats us up.

BTW, as the hand played out... The river is a super easy fold!