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Old 09-20-2007, 05:35 PM
Fiasco Fiasco is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,301
Default NL50 CRAI on flop by a good player

Villain is 13/8/2.3 (good stats!) @ 20 ptbb/100 over 400 hands. He is also a regular poster on this forum and knows who I am.


Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $22.75
UTG+1: $61.05
MP1: $50.75
MP2: $52.10
MP3: $89.80
Fiasco: $52.45
Button: $30.20
SB: $68.95
BB: $50

Pre-flop: (9 players) Fiasco is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Fiasco raises to $3</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($12.5, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $6</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Fiasco raises to $18</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises all-in $65.95</font>, UTG folds, Fiasco?



Several things complicate this hand for me.

1) The shorty looks like he should be calling so its less likely that this is a low equity semi-bluff (say with just 67) on villain's part

2) Ive put in over 1/3 of my stack. So maybe I should be committed?

3) It seems like his range should be something like:
33, 44, 66, 5h6h, Ah6h, 6h7h, Ah5h, Ah7h, AhKh, AhQh

with the set hands being more likely as Id hope he wouldnt be calling too many pf raises with suited connectors or suited Aces OOP.

Im less than 10% against the sets and a little worse than even against the flush draws.
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