Not betting this one on the spread
My preseason index has it Miami -1.5
My index based on the combined ratings at
Massey compare has it A&M +4...(combined ratings based on 20 some odd published computer indexes)
My index based on the 'experts' I trust most (
CFN #1-#119 poll) has it A&M -0.5.
As pointed out, A&M might be inflated due to an easier schedule.
Also, Thursday night prime home teams have shown a larger than expected home field advantage over the past 4 to 5 years.
SO, My indexes show no edge.
I see nothing between the two teams to suggest bucking that.
However, I do see a play on the over
A&M/Miami Fl o45 bet 1.05u to win 1u
Thursday nights have shown fireworks.
I love A&M's ability to score on Miami. I overrated Marshall's offense early, so was extra impressed by the Miami D. I was wrong. OK, A&M doesn't have the balance of Oklahoma, but they do provide a very dynamic offense that is tough to stop. If Miami stacks the line, A&M does provide enough passing. Plus, a stacked line is less effective stopping a spread-option rushing attack that gets defenders in space than a traditional rushing attack.
On the other side of the ball, The Aggies have struggled on D and the Hurricanes have struggled on O. A&M is giving up 383 ypg (slightly inflated due to a multi-OT game) v pretty weak competition. Montana St...LOL. Fresno St is done from what it was. UL-Monroe has shown they can rush (s Car and A&M), but that is still kind of shady. Miami's QB situation appears to be clear. Hopefully, it will be enough.
My model predicts 48 points in this one. I see no reason to override it.