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Old 09-20-2007, 03:01 PM
Caelallaiach Caelallaiach is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 128
Default Re: Can i get some insight 10nl

[ QUOTE ]
You are definitely getting the odds to call the extra $.35 even if just to set mine.. Remember Button called preflop too, so you have to include the % of time you will win from both villains or even just Button.. If you were up against just UTG then it's a fold.

0522432, maybe i missed it (i just skimmed your posts), but it seems your only concerned about UTG regarding the preflop call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without Button's call, there would be $1.25 in the pot, $0.35 to call, so the pot lays about 3.5 to 1, and another $4.81 left in UTG's stack.

Max we can win: $4.81 + $1.25 = $6.06
Min we win = $1.25

We would be calling $0.35 to potentially win $6.06, so about 6% of what we win if we stack Villain. Personally, I would still call this, I think we can stack Villain more often than normal given the min-re-raise tell.

We need to win about (11x$0.35=$3.85) on average using the 11 to 1 quoted above. There is $1.25 already in the pot so we need to get $2.60 on average from Villain.

That means stacking him about 54% of the time we hit our set ($2.60/$4.81x100%), seems a reasonable assumption? So call the min-raise with or without Button calling, although having the Button in as well is obviously preferable, since it adds to the preflop pot and also is an extra stack to win money off.

Seriously, I really, really, love it when weak players play their big Pocket Pairs this badly preflop, but they do need to have enough for us to win in their stack.
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