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Old 09-20-2007, 10:27 AM
jstill jstill is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: downtown portsmouth
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Default Re: RiverRaisewith Bottom 2pair?

i dont like the turn raise here but I dont really have good reasons other than u have to call a 3bet and u have less fold equity in a blind battle, most people bet call the turn with any PP here I think with all the potential draws so it just is a slightly -EV or break even play that adds variance.

U guys all left QQ out of his range as well, its certainly possible, and yes u have to discount AA KK AQ KQ, not every villain 3 bets those every time (its more likely if he expects u to 3bet TPGK and all PPs though keep that in mind when discounting), but probably always 3bets with QT TT QQ 44 and 55... so combo wise your losing to 19 and beating 36 which you have to discount. Vs that range offering up 3:2 on a raise it seems slightly -EV if you can't fold to a 3bet, if you discount KQ AQ or even overpairs quite a bit due to the turn 3bet (say maybe 75% of unknowns 3bet those or basing this on recent history with villain) then raise folding even if u never folded a winner (which you can't assume) would get thinnish. Throw in a few more hands like Q5 he might steal and the range shifts less in favor of a raise.

fwiw I think preflop is fine, but thinking about wtsd stats and trying to bluff him u should remember most players even weak tighties show down far more in blind battles than other situations.
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