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Old 09-20-2007, 09:54 AM
SeanC SeanC is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 108
Default Re: Bet sizing question

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Speaking for myself, bet sizing is obviously important, but I don't spend a lot of time working on the math but rather what I'm trying to accomplish and how it works with my style.

For example, when I make a RR from the blinds, I'll generally make it a little more than a pot sized since I'll have to play OOP if called. I'll do this when I'm restealing light as well as when I'm reraising a legit hand for value. To me, at least, it's far too complex to sort out the various EVs of various holdings and their raise sizes - and it's complicated further once you take the playability of certain hands into account.

I'm still trying to get the most EV by making these raises, but I'm more looking at the medium-term. I think it's wrong to view each hand in a vaccuum and evaluate the EV of each particular bet/raise. Some raise sizes are clearly suboptimal individually, no question.

Also, there are psychological and image aspects that bets or raises can have which wreak havoc on the math sometimes. For example, we've all been in spots facing a river bet where we fold to a "suspiciously" small bet, but would have called a larger sized bet... so it's not always a simple curve between EV and raise/bet amounts.

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Yeah, I agree that trying to constantly calculate EVs is futile. But let's take a situation where you have the nuts, or a hand that you know is best, on the river and you're going to value-bet it. You're fairly certain the villain has top or two-pair. Theoretically, you could run through a quick EV calculation on the bet, starting with the largest plausible bet size based on how he plays. You could then estimate the EVs of a couple smaller options. If you were quick, it probably wouldn't take more than 10 seconds.

It, however, gets tougher if you're looking at a more diverse range of hands. Let's say that, as far as you're concerned, there's a 30% chance he has a busted flush draw, a 50% chance he has TPMK or MPHK and a 20% chance he has a worse hand. This is a bit more complicated and impractical unless you want to sit for a minute before betting, haha. My guess, however, is that the great players have taken these long, drawn out EV calculations and have drilled in the process so extensively that the high EV plays come almost automatically, and they mainly focus on hand reading and psychological aspects. Do you agree?

The reason I'm asking is because my bet sizing has always been based on what I put the villain on, what he puts me on and then what the largest sized bet I "think" he will call. The problem with that method is that the "I think" part wasn't quantified and therefore the EV really isn't being maximized. Sometimes I'd get high, sometimes low--and I didn't know better either way.

I was tending to bet too large when I had a hand and when I was bluffing, which was prompting folds when I had something and occasionally snapping my bluffs for a big loss. I now see that his is a very unprofitable way to play, haha.
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