[Student Caine]

Grunch:

So here is what I think about this hand...take it with a grain of salt as my short handed game is pretty weak.

Preflop: 3-Handed with position this *could* be ok. The problem here is that you are probably not folding out SB with those stats so it kind of depends on how he is postflop. If he is weak and likes to fold a lot when he misses then it isn't a bad play. If he tends to hold on to bottom pair or overcards then this is not so good.

Flop: Standard cbet. I may throw a little more out there dependent on how I have seen him react to larger cbets in the past (though 100 hands is not a huge sample). The min raise is troubling and it means one of 3 things:

1. He has a strong to huge hand and is trying to slow play it, but doesn't want to lose too much value.

2. He has a weak to medium strength hand and wants to push you off of your hand, but doesn't want to risk too much in doing so.

3. He has two [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s and he once read somewhere that you should raise your draws.

The real key here is having reads on this guy to tell you which of these is the most likely situation. The problem here is that in a 3-handed 25NL game a 46/1/1.6 is playing a ton of hands and is not terribly aggressive postflop. If all 100 hands with this guy have been 3 handed and he is at a 1.6AF then I probably let this go.

I do think that calling here is probably the worst move. If we think we are behind here then we have at most 5 outs. If we think we are ahead then we need to punish the draw. By simply calling we have shown weakness and are most likely exposing ourselves to a turn bet that we will most likely need to fold to as we have no idea where we actually are.

Turn: As it hits the flush has landed and the chance we are beat has increased. I think this is an easy fold here.

If the turn is a 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or some other blank and he bets $5, I still think this is a fold, but logically as we played the flop as we did then we should call the turn bet as the hand has not changed in regards to villain's range.