Re: Caesars 2-5-10: KK vs. Dr. Amir
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I just looked it up, and apparently there is only an 11.67% chance of an A flopping without a K.
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This can't be right. Probability that an Ace flops given that you have KK is 1-[(46/50)(45/49)(44/48)]= 0.225. I can't see this number being divided in half by including the times you flop a set.
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Oops. You're right.
P(overcard)=22.55%
P(no set)= (48/50)(47/49)(46/48)=88.24%
P(overcard and no set)=(.2255)(.8824)=19.9%
That's what I get for trusting Ken Warren's calculations.
19.9% chance of flopping an ace and no set when I have KK is uncomfortably high to put in >40% of my stack and then fold if he bets. So then maybe shoving preflop is best after all...or commit to the pot preflop but put the money in in two steps, regardless of what flops?
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