[jay_shark]

If he's holding a random hand then the odds of him holding a spade is 9*38/47c2 ~ 31.6% . In reality , his odds of holding a spade will be a bit less since he will be raising with more pocket pair hands than a typical unpaired random hand .

This means that about 75% of the time , he doesn't have you beat . To be exact , it's 1- 7*38/47c2~75% .

I would definitely consider check raising here is he's an aggressive player . The combination of you possibly having the best hand and the best draw makes check raising a reasonable option .