[igetbadbeat]

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Nate Diaz -200
vs.
Junior Assuncao +160


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i dont know too much about assuncao other than hes a pretty good bjj guy, so as long as he's not a complete can, i'd take +160 against diaz anyday....nate is very young and just like the elder diaz, highly overrated....

diaz didnt impress me a bit in any of his fights on TUF....the guys he beat lacked experience and looked clueless on the ground....not to mention his standup looked awfully uncoordinated....and as suspected, when he ran into someone with real grappling experience he got steamrolled....he was a winner by default and probably the 3rd or 4th best fighter on the show....

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I think what you're feeling is more important for future fights. You hope nate is overrated in a future fight...but it's hard to say that's true here. Nate's standup was as good or better than most on TUF, even if it didnt' show all the time and he was not steamrolled by manny...even though I did pick and bet on manny to win the finale. Nate's got a very good guard and he's always attacking from it, while I think Manny won the scorecards based on UFC judging, he didn't do much or any damage to nate and nate was doing a great job as well. I don't know enough about Junior to put my money on it, but I'm guessing there's not gonna be an upset. The UFC wouldn't be that stupid to waste and investment like that.

In short, if you know how good Junior is, feel free to bet him. I monst certainly wouldn't bet against Diaz just because he's overrated. I don't think that's gonna work very well for you.