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Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed)
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Villain is 49/16/1.8 over 500+ hands
I should be something like 20/15/2.6 to him
Hero ($70.65)
SB ($49.50)
BB ($265.10)
UTG ($109.60)
MP ($51.65)
CO ($51.35)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">
2 folds</font>, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>, BB calls $2, CO calls $2.
Flop: ($7.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5.5</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $20</font>, Hero ...
Shove now or call and shove turn (reevaluate on an A). I figured I'm way ahead of his range as I've seen him overplay overpairs in these situations. He's also capable of doing it with air, too.
I'm thinking he will call with QQ/JJ and anything that beats me and probably fold TT.
I think if I call and shove turn he might call with TT and maybe even with 88/77 feeling commited.
Only problem is an A on the turn but it's both unlikely and unlikely to help him.
I actually think he'll fold everything I beat either way because the limp/call is probably not a pair strong enough to call here if beat.
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This is a grunch
Good post OP, i like when OPs make effort! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
I like calling here, to make TT go broke. However we've got to dodge A/K/Q/J/T assuming he had TT thats 4/2/4/4/2 = 16 cards so it's going to hit around 1/3rd time.
He's put in quite a large raise, just noticed its a check raise which is pretty scary.
Alot of 9x combos, in comparison to the TT/JJ/QQ combos also.
Infact, wow i just looked at this guys stats - 40/16 he never has QQ/JJ./TT here IMO.
We're screwed, OP fold and if he has TT good game.
TT/JJ = 12 ways.
T9 alone = 16 ways.
Fold.
Calling would maxamise ev if you think his range differs.