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Old 09-19-2007, 08:34 AM
private joker private joker is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: north american scum
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Default Re: I make a lot of questionable decisions

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River: lead here PLEASE.
Once button bets though, I think you should call. You have a nice chance for an overcall behind you, and button might not call your CR.

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You may be right about leading, but think about this some more. Given their flop and turn play, don't their hands look a lot like missed draws? T8, QT, and diamond-draws make up a HUGE part of their range in my opinion. But maybe one of the 3 of them has a made hand and my best bet is the flop raiser -- MP. So if I check to him I might get a call from button and how can he fold to a checkraise in such a big pot? So I checked. Oops, nobody bet until the button.

Now that that happened, time to reevaluate. EP and MP both had a chance to bet when I "gave up" on the river. They didn't like their hand enough to do so. I think it's more likely that button now has a made hand and the others have the QT/T8/diamonds range, so I'd rather get a call from button than see the other 2 fold anyway.

At least that was my thinking. My flush is really really well hidden. And these opponents are too passive to raise 2 pair (or worse) on this river so I'm never getting the chance to 3-bet here if I lead. At best I think I get 1BB from someone along with 2 folds from the missed draws. Checkraising should get me 2BBs at least, if not one more from a caller between me and the bettor.

But since I was so unsure about this and playing it fairly fast (I didn't sit there and tank on every decision to go through these thoughts), I could very well have played this real bad.
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