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Old 09-19-2007, 06:09 AM
RobNottsUk RobNottsUk is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 359
Default Re: 0.25/.50 LO8: nut flush on paired board

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I think the main mistake that you made was not to raise on the flop.

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Being prone to aggressive play, I considered that initially, but there's only 6 bets in the pot, and he has 2nd nut flush + nut Lo draw only.

Low stakes players are very willing to overcall for 1 bet, and when they have a bit of a hand on the turn, they won't fold when yours is made, perhaps feeling their 4th Nut Lo may be good, or their str8 (despite the flush possibility). If they make their hand on turn, they're not aggressive enough, so overall you benefit from keeping them in the pot with weak hands (increasing the liklihood of river mistakes).

With short-stack bettor on immediate right, you have no fold equity, you'll still get called by the Nut Flush, and over Nut Lo, so there's no promotion or semi-bluff fold equity.

Similarly on turn, keeping the likely bluffer in the pot, improves the implied odds of your draw.

Against some players, I'd actually raise on the river, expecting them to call with very poor hands even when they knew they were bluffing. That's the problem with the OP's question, sometimes I'd fold, usually call and othertimes value raise.

But bottom line is, poor players generally don't make mistakes when they're folding, so it's more profitable often to keep them in the pot with weak hands.
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