[BarryLyndon]

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i agree that this flop probably hits one of them a good number of times, but this flop isnt hitting them hard very often. if we think they are willing to stack of here with jx or 88-tt then obv we just give up the hand. but isnt it much more likely they will c/c and c/f a decent number of times on turn? further with our stack this is a pot we really wanna pick. giving up means our stealing will become very awkward, i think the the ev of picking up this pot via aggression is worth a lot mote than the times that we have to fold to a c/r and start pushbotting

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both SB/BB won't stack off they have you covered by a lot.

Say you cont. bet 5K. I say you pick up the pot less than 33% of the time. Say you pick it up 25% of the time. The other 75% you are either getting CRed or called. What is your plan if a spade hits? a 4? an ace? Another J? Because now, on the turn, you'd have to pick up the pot more than 50% of the time to make this profitable, that is assuming you have the gaul to fire another bullet (psychology goes into this, because despite our theory plans, we now put our tourney lives on the line with a mid pair on what could very well be a bluff).

The whole thing looks like ass, and the more I think about it, the more I like a fold preflop. However, I don't care if my stack size is awkard because I still have enough to 3-bet for FE and you're going to have to face an awkard stack at one point or another in a tournament.

Barry