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Old 09-18-2007, 04:25 AM
Poker monkey Poker monkey is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Valuetown
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Default Re: CardPlayer claim about Annette 15

I don't know if anyone's done this before, but I've evaluated how lucky Annette is in this video.

She's all-in versus a larger stack with the worst of it 4 times (and wins them all obviously):

97o vs 66 = 46.22%
J4s vs AKo = 32.31%
J7o vs AKs = 32.04%
J5o vs A8o = 36.55%

The chances of he winning all of these is 1.7%.

Even if she tried it 50 times with these odds, she still only has a 59% chance of winning all of these all-ins at least once in those 50 attempts.

There's a lot of other luck involved, e.g. the chances that the other players didn't turn up with a hand that could call her river shoves at the final table, but that's too hard to evaluate.

After pulling off a more than 50:1 shot with the all-ins, the chances of everything else going her must way be fairly slim, so I'd guess she must have attempted this at least a couple of hundred times to get this result. Obviously she plays with a lot of skill, but even playing with an infinite amount of skill, the chances of pulling this off must still be much less than 1%.
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