[TStoneMBD]

On Page 18 of Professional No-Limit Holdem they describe this hand:

1/2NL effective stacks of $200.

3 people limp and we button limp with 6c8c, blinds call.

Flop is Qh 7c 5d.

BB bets $10, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn is 2c.

BB bets $40, UTG folds.



The author begins to count outs and because theres a possibility that the BB has a bigger flush draw, he discounts the outs from 15 to 14.

His logic is that the BB should have a flush draw 1 out of 9 times, so he discounts one full out.

This seems way too high imo. What percentage of the time do you think the BB has a flush draw and how many outs (or percentage of an out) do you think you should discount?


~Erika