Re: Should I be shoving this ?
As flopman mentioned, 77% = .95 ^ 5
I'm not sure if top 5% as their calling ranges is accurate or not, I hadn't read your initial post carefully enough. You knew the players much better than me, for all I know 10% may have been more accurate. But obviously as their calling ranges increase, your pushing expectation decreases.
It's been a while since I've read Harrington on Holdem, but I believe he makes a lot of similar calculations throughout his books. If you haven't read those, they're definitely a good read.
Not sure where to direct you wrt these problems. You can try searching by my 2+2 username and filter for *Tournament Poker* ---. But you may have to go through 100 posts to find 5-10 relevant posts. Or you can try posting in the other tournament forums and ask for direction. I'm sure someone will direct you to the proper posts.
GL.
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