[mikeJ]

mastr, I think people are very rarely showing up w/ AQ there.

When Jovial folds...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.625% 44.28% 12.35% 100079772 27906468.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 43.375% 31.03% 12.35% 70131420 27906468.00 { AKs }

You'll be getting about 57 to 37.7, so you need like 39.8% equity. So that's good for us.

When Jovial calls...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.243% 32.62% 05.62% 1244770860 214645234.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 36.582% 32.13% 04.46% 1225973712 170072626.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 25.175% 17.41% 07.76% 664526364 296190340.00 { AKs }

We're going to be getting around 73 to 30 in the main pot. We need 29.1% equity in the main pot. And we'll need to put another 7500 in the pot for the sidepot, which we will be putting in as a dog vs. LaJune's range. This is bad for us.

The only reason why this is close is because we have AKs, if we had AKo, this is a fold, and with AKs it's real close. I haven't played w/ atimos much so I don't know how often he's 3-betting light here. However, I think putting TT into LaJune's 4-betting range is generous. Yea, maybe he did a donkey overbet shove in hand 1, it doesn't mean he's going to suicide 4-bet cold shove w/ TT here. Also, when it gets back to atimos, he'll be getting just about 3 to 1, and I think there's a decent chance he'll fold AKo if mr. aejones reships.