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Old 09-17-2007, 03:34 AM
maltaille maltaille is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 71
Default Re: NL25 AA getting donked hard by tighty

Raising the flop is good, but I don't think it's inherently better than calling. Which is right depends on the villain and your image.

If you raise this, you have to be raising overcards here as well, otherwise you define your hand too much. Raising is also likely to fold out anything you beat, while getting calls (or reraises) from things you don't. Raising here is most likely to win you the pot right away though, and depending on how often you see this situation, it might be worthwhile to do it here just so you can raise overcards later. If so, it has to be part of your normal game though.

On the other hand, calling is likely to win you more money in this pot, especially given the aggressiveness of villain. It could easily be a 9, a semi-bluff (89, 67), or a very strong hand that wants to see a raise (a set or made straight), so it's yet another way ahead/way behind situation. Image considerations like those above aside, calling is likely to make more money for you long term simply because of the way you split his range when you raise (keep in mind his aggressiveness is a factor in this).

Call the turn (you'd bet it if checked to, expecting a fold or check-raise most of the time), and call the river (because you aren't going to know when he hits if he's semi-bluffing), though realise that the river bet is likely to put you all in with just a pair. Yes, you'd lose less by raising the flop and folding to a 3bet, but you'll also win less in the times you are ahead, and the difference tends to be skewed towards the winning less side.
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