[Buzz]

Coatsie - Since I moved you post onto this forum, I want to make sure you get at least one response here.

Alas, I'm not the best poster to make it, since my experience is mostly in limit Omaha-8 games.

However, I'll give it a shot.

You have a nice starting hand, probably nice enough that it would be nice to have a bit more in the pot to start. But you're out of position, have already posted, and you don't want to merely steal the blinds with your fine starting hand. So you check. Hard to fault. But then you end up playing three handed anyhow, and are probably sorry you didn't raise, the way things turned out. I have no suggestions, but maybe someone else with more experience does.

And then you flop queens full of kings. It's probably the best hand immediately after the flop, but vulnerable and needing as much protection as you can give it. Two checks and you bet the pot. Seems correct to me.

Anyone continuing should at least have a king, but maybe these opponents either don't know that or don't believe it.

BB calls. We can do a quick calculation here, and assess the possibility one of two hands was dealt a king. Then we assume anyone dealt a king would continue after this flop (and maybe anyone who wasn't dealt a king folds).

At any rate, we make the calculation on the basis of two hands, rather than one, even though only one has called. Here it is:
P = 1-C(43,8)/C(45,8)=0.327

Assuming I didn't punch in a number wrong on my hand held calculator, the probability one of these blinds, was dealt a hand with a king is slightly less than one third.

At any rate, BB calls your bet, and then calls again on the turn. Does that mean he has a king? I don't know. The fact that BB is playing makes it look more likely than the roughly one out of three we calculated above that he does have a king. But on the other hand, just because he's playing doesn't mean he has a king. Both things considered, I think it's close to a coin-flip.

It doesn't look like he has kings full on the turn because he checks and calls. I'd expect him to bet or check/raise on the turn with kings full, but maybe not. (There's no way around knowing your opponents).

Then, if BB does have a king, will he have made a full house on the river? That's unlikely. How unlikely? Approximately, he needs one king and one of his other three cards to be a jack.
P = 1-C(38,3)/C(41,3)=0.209

In other words, assuming my fingers didn't stumble on the keys of my calculator, about one fifth of the time if he has KXYZ, he'll make kings full with this particular river card. The other four times out of five, he pretty much has to pay you off. And for half a buck, even without a king, he might pay you off just to see what you're playing.

Bottom line: Shove in fifty four cents and make him at least pay to see your hand.

Epilogue: Yes, you hate to get check-raised here, but I think you take the chance. Even if he check-raises, it might only be trip kings (or a bluff or bad bet).

Summary: Pot it. (And then call if he check-raises).

Buzz