[Lpmatt]

The spread mattered in only 17% of all the games last season and the underdog under +7.5 only lost but still covered the spread about 10% of the time over the past 3 seasons.

So I say just bet who you think will win and you'll usually be good, of course when you do lose instead of push because of a last second fg that'll stick in your head more than when your 7 pt fav wins by 21 because that's just how the brain works.