Re: 3+1 Challenge Week 2 Lines
210
125
212
131
Good start to the season, but I won't dwell on that.
$400 Colts/Titans u45.5 (210)
Let me clarify something here, this pick isn't my normal "Unders on high totals early" pick. This pick is because I think the line is entirely wrong (you don't get entirely wrong lines in the NFL, so take that as a relative statement please)
The Titans are coming off a win against one of the toughest Defensive units out there. While they might struggle to repeat that win, let's take a quick look as to how they managed it.
1-10-TEN 21 (10:38) L.White right end to TEN 21 for no gain
2-10-TEN 21 (9:57) L.White up the middle to TEN 27 for 6 yards PENALTY on JAX-99-M.Stroud, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at TEN 27.
1-10-TEN 42 (9:37) B.Jones right end to JAX 39 for 19 yards
1-10-JAC 39 (8:55) L.White left end to JAX 37 for 2 yards
2-8-JAC 37 (8:14) L.White up the middle to JAX 32 for 5 yards
Timeout #1 by TEN at 07:35.
3-3-JAC 32 (7:35) V.Young scrambles right end ran ob at JAX 28 for 4 yards
1-10-JAC 28 (7:09) V.Young pass short right to 80-B.Scaife to JAX 31 for -3 yards
2-13-JAC 31 (6:28) L.White right end to JAX 27 for 4 yards
3-9-JAC 27 (5:46) V.Young pass deep right to 80-B.Scaife to JAX 6 for 21 yards 1-6-JAC 6 (5:35) L.White right end to JAX 5 for 1 yard
2-5-JAC 5 (4:58) L.White right end to JAX 2 for 3 yards
3-2-JAC 2 (4:12) V.Young pass incomplete short right to 17-Ch.Davis (
4-2-JAC 2 (4:06) R.Bironas 20 yard field goal is GOOD,
While there's no guarantees that they'll have this kind of control again (This was one of three drives over 6 minutes), they're no mugs and they'll take as much time off the clock as they possibly can to try to level this one up.
The Colts on Defence had the most time per play of any team last year (for the obvious reasons of them having difficulty against the rush, and teams deliberately playing slowly against them).
On top of all that, the Colts didn't look to open up until the second half against the Saints. If they use a similar strategy of pounding with the run and then opening up in the air, we might be sweating come the 4th quarter but we could be in a good position.
Another small thing I like about this one is that if it's a massacre and the Titans struggle to run the ball, we can get away with a 42-0 drubbing and still win the bet.
Finally, it does fit my favorite thing of betting unders on high totals at this time of year, however that's a bonus, not the main reason.
Sorry about the long waffle, but I like this bet a lot.
$300 Jets +11 (#125)
I'm nowhere near as keen on my other three picks as I am the top one, but this looks like a decent punt.
I've never seen a home crowd cheer an injury before (and I'm English remember), but that's what happened when Pennington came off last week. If the line is factoring in that, then I think it's making an error. I feel Clemens did fine.
Meanwhile I felt the Ravens made heavy work of moving the ball, and that's forgetting the fact that they have injuries all over the place, some of which will stick.
11 points is a lot of points, it also ties in with me liking low scoring games early on a little, so that's a bonus.
$200 ATL/JAX u37.5 (#212)
This one looks like a square pick to me, but I've long since stopped trying to second guess such things. Atlanta by all accounts were terrible, and Jax aren't noted for high scoring games at the best of times.
I see this one being 20-6 or something a lot of the time.
$100 Redskins +7.5 (#131)
This week's hunch pick. The 0.5 always attracts me to this kind of mess and Philly don't seem at the top of their game yet. Hoping to win it by the hook.
Lori
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