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Old 09-13-2007, 02:12 AM
C4LL4W4Y C4LL4W4Y is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: NJ
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Default Re: Understanding Variance vs Questioning your ability..(hands/graph/l

hmmm, looks like you're confusing variance with overplaying hands. let me give my comments.

1: i probably wouldn't lead the turn, but if you have good reason to believe he'll call down with marginal made hands/draws then this is fine. however, once that jack rivers i'd seriously consider shutting down, or at the very least not leading, as jack/x is within that marginal hands/draws range that he is often on.

2: bad call, you're getting 18.2-13.7 which is not enough for your draw.

3: marginal spot, you can go either way with a fold/call to the river raise depending on your perception of villain.

4: i'd probably 3bet to like 8/9, and if you say villain is playing semi lag-ish then its probably a call, but it's marginal.

5: what the hell is that flop lead?

6: raising the turn (TT hand) turns your hand into a bluff, and usually only receives further action from hands that are beating you. just call and try to get some value on the river.

7: w/t guys are the only types of people i fold this to, and i still have a hard time. i can't fault you for felting this, but against guys that don't give a lot of action, you're often beat in this spot.

8: the ak hand, eh i can't really find a fold until the river. the turn is fine, though i usually raise against guys that love random aces.
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