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Old 09-12-2007, 04:19 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 3,633
Default Re: 10-20 O8, who made bigger mistake?

Omahahahaha - When I read your question, I wondered who had the better starting hand in a three handed contest when both hands were involved.

But of course that depends on the cards in the third hand.

UTG raises. Is UTG more likely than not to have an ace for the raise? Is UTG more likely to have an ace than a king for the raise?

I think the answer is yes.

At any rate, I ran two simulations, both three handed. In the first sim, I gave UTG an ace, specficially:<ul type="square">
BB: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],blank,blank,blank
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][/list]In the second sim, I gave BB and Hero the same hands as above, but gave UTG four blanks.

As you might have guessed, Hero is substantially ahead in the first sim but behind in the second.

I think UTG's play indicates he probably has an ace (as does Hero's), and therefore BB is probably behind as the cards lie. And cold calling a double bet seems somehow poor. But there is merit in defending your big blind. (I think it deters attacks on your future blinds and also tends to reduce aggressive behavior against you in other circumstances when you are not in the big blind). If by calling, BB can get you to believe you can't knock him out by making it two bets, then maybe next time you'll be less likely to make it two bets.

In other words, I think the way you play the current hand has a very big effect on the way some of your opponents play against you in the future. If that is part of BB's thinking, then I can understand biting the bullet and calling the double bet.

But on the basis of BB's cards alone, I don't like his call of the double bet at all. (BB has a playable, but not very good starting hand - the pair of treys stink, as does the dangler nine). Or if BB is calling because he thinks he's getting a discount, or because he thinks the money he has posted is his, then I don't like his call at all.

Your own starting hand is only marginally playable, in my humble opinion. It is thus a worse starting hand than A339 with a suited ace. Moreover, I like it better for multiple opponent play than for heads-up play. But by raising with it, you add value to future hands where you will be raising with a stronger hand.

You have a type of starting hand such that some opponents will tend to criticize you for your raise when you win and will also tend to criticize you if you criticize them. (I suspect one or the other of those led to this post by you).

I don't think either of you necessarily made a "mistake" here. However, with all its flaws, I do like your hand better (than A339s) for three handed play involving a third opponent who is likely to have a hand with an ace. And you have position on BB. The edge is with you.

Buzz

Edit: I was composing my reply when 1MoreFish4U posted. Thus I did not read his reply first.

I agree with what he wrote in the first paragraph. And then, although I would not have expressed them as harshly, I can understand and appreciate his other rhetorical questions and comments. (No offense intended, 1MoreFish4U).

I think how best to play depends a lot on your opponents. And you can take some action thinking one way and have that seem like the correct action to an observer, but do the same thing thinking another way and have that seem incorrect to the same observer.

I don't know if I'm expressing my thoughts clearly enough to make sense. My apologies if they don't.

Buzz
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